This is a posting regarding Peggy Noonan's yesterday article in the Wall Street Journal on The Bear That Talks Like a Man: Conflict with Russia neither began nor ended with the Cold War.
Well, before reading further, you may ask, what do WE know about Russia?
Take a look here: Russia, China, Putin, Crimea and Ukraine, the Baltic and Related Topics ... "I am Not Sure".
With all due respect to Noonan at WSJ and George Friedman of Stratfor, both experienced in this area of political and military discourse, but that particular article looks to us like a bucket loaded with illusory wishful thinking, wishful thinking that could -- detrimentally -- find its way into U.S. foreign policy.
To understand Russia, it would seem that more information must be acquired, before correct conclusions about events can be drawn.
What are the facts? FACTS.
We surely do not have a monopoly on facts, but some of the indisputable facts are that Russia lords over vast quantities of vital natural resources and that the military has been getting stronger under President Putin's leadership.
Here are some individually selected items in this regard:
Here are some individually selected items in this regard:
- Whereas Friedman -- erroneously, in our view -- predicts that the Russian military will collapse shortly after 2020, in fact there has been a constant buildup of the military under Putin and more is planned up to 2020. See http://nationalinterest.org/
commentary/russias-military- back-9181
- Financially, Russia would seem to be able to afford greatly increased military spending since the foundation of the Russian economy is based on natural resources, with much of Europe e.g. heavily dependent on Russian supplies of gas for energy purposes: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/
2014-03-28/europe-seen-paying- twice-as-much-to-replace- russian-gas.html
- And what about world nickel? World nickel prices could easily skyrocket. See Russia Would Divert Nickel Sales to China on Sanctions
- Furthermore, Putin recently signed an agreement with China over "eased" travel rules between the two powers for "businessmen, scientists, culture and public figures, and athletes": http://en.itar-tass.com/
russia/727480.
That does not look like a Russia that is becoming weaker. Indeed, in terms of economic comparative advantage, Russia and China would each seem to have a lot to offer one another in terms of trade at vital levels.
Given all of the above, we thus do not worry very much about Russia collapsing in the near future.
Quite the contrary, we see that the Russian Federation is getting stronger and stronger, economically and militarily, which will clearly create new political conditions in the future.
Demographics are also a very important parameter, with Russia and the USA both having populations near 300 million, which sets limitations on what they can do, whereas Europe dominates economically with 500 million persons.
Quite the contrary, we see that the Russian Federation is getting stronger and stronger, economically and militarily, which will clearly create new political conditions in the future.
Demographics are also a very important parameter, with Russia and the USA both having populations near 300 million, which sets limitations on what they can do, whereas Europe dominates economically with 500 million persons.
We wish it were otherwise, but the country we worry about most is the United States itself, a country divided increasingly into haves and not haves, and guided e.g. by a U.S. Supreme Court dominated in the majority by "yesterday yearners" and a similarly backward-looking populist-populated Congress with too many political elements living in a "Boston Tea Party" nostalgia-like celebration of past glories, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
whereas the real world is moving forward and leaving America behind.
See e.g.
- World Airline Ranking: http://www.economist.com/news/
united-states/21599801-new- ranking
- Ranking of the USA in tech fundamentals: high-level math, science and literacy skills necessary for the new economy http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/23/opinion/the-united-states-falling-behind.html?_r=0
- Business etc. Leadership Rankings http://industrytoday.com/article_view.asp?ArticleID=we416
- World Health Rankings 2000 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
World_Health_Organization_ ranking_of_health_systems_in_ 2000 - http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp0910064
- Health Rankings 2010 - Comparisons reveal that the United States was, prior to Obamacare, falling farther behind each year (see graph below)
.
Only in such traditional parameters as "ease of doing business" and "economic freedom" is America holding its own, and even here the trend appears to be downward:
http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings
http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking
Accordingly, whether or not the political parties and representatives in the USA want political "change" or not, the nation really has little actual choice on the matter, because the rest of the world IS CHANGING.
NECESSITY drives the world, and that means change, by definition.
NECESSITY drives the world, and that means change, by definition.
Hat tip to CaryGEE for drawing my attention to the WSJ article.
